你认为俄罗斯或乌克兰的胜利各自需要什么条件，停战、休战又需要什么呢？

What do you think are the conditions needed for Russia to win, for Ukraine to win or for a truce/armistice?

答主：Carl Hamilton, Studied International Relations and Global Political Economy

For Russia to win they must achieve a peace where as many of their war goals are achieved. Their goals are as follows:
如果俄罗斯想要获胜，就必须在达成和平的同时取得他们既定的战争目标。他们的目标如下：

·Annexing the oblasts which held referendums
·吞并已经举行了全民公投的州

·Dislodge Ukraine from western influence
·把西方影响力逐出乌克兰

·Partial or full demilitarization of Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
·在可预期的未来内，令乌克兰部分或完全非军事化

Additional goals can be added depending on how negotiations in the future will drag out, for example, a total unwillingness on point 2 and 3, will necessitate that Russia takes a larger chunk of Ukraine, for example east of the Dnieper. Achieving just one of these would be a partial victory.
是否还会有额外的目标取决于未来谈判的拖延情况，举例来说，如果第2和第3点完全不被接受，俄罗斯就必须取得乌克兰更大的一块土地，比如第聂伯河东岸。如果只能实现上述条件中的一个，那就算是是部分胜利。

Ukraine’s victory conditions are quite simple, retake the land which they claim is Ukraine, including Crimea. They have said this multiple times, and a failure to do so is a failure to meet their own aims. However, recapturing the 2021 borders, would be a partial victory for Ukraine.
乌克兰的胜利条件就相当简单，即重获他们申明属于乌克兰的领土，包括克里米亚。他们已经重申许多次，如果不能实现这一点，对于他们的目标来说就是失败。不过，重夺2021年的边界线也可说是乌克兰的部分胜利。

For negotiations to start, one of the sides has to think they will not win, or that continuing the war is a worse alternative than surrendering. This is pretty much it. As it looks right now, the only way that Ukraine will negotiate is if western support stops. Russia will not accept a negotiated defeat I am pretty sure. I cannot imagine any scenario where they will. This is probably also why many fantasies regarding the war are centered around Russia just falling apart. Even if Putin was genuinely assassinated, Russia would not stop this war, and would most likely retaliate in the most brutal ways imaginable.
为了开始谈判，双方其中之一必须认为他们无法取胜，或者说继续战争是比投降更差的选择。差不多就是这样。从现在的情况狂砍，乌克兰走向谈判的唯一可能性就是西方停止支持。而俄罗斯肯定不会接受谈判失利。因此我无法想象他们愿意接受谈判的剧本。这大概也是为什么许多关于这场战争的幻想都围绕着俄罗斯的瓦解展开。然而即使普京真地被暗杀，俄罗斯也不会停止这场战争，他们更可能会以能想到的最野蛮的方式进行报复。

单词表

truce n. 停战
armistice n. 休战
oblast n. （苏联各加盟共和国的）州、
referendum n. 全民公决
dislodge v. 驱逐
partial adj. 部分的
foreseeable adj. 可预知的
negotiation n. 谈判
drag out 拖延
necessitate v. 使成为必需
chunk n. 大块
pretty much 差不多是
regardubg prep. 关于
fall apart 土崩瓦解
genuinely adv. 真地
retaliate v. 报复
brutal adj. 凶残的

译自：https://qr.ae/prJUHS

时间：2023年3月7日