为什么许多美国人和西欧人相信，当普京去世后，俄罗斯会变成一个“西方民主国家”?这个主张有任何正确性吗？

Why do many Americans and Western Europeans believe that, with Putin gone, Russia will become a “western democracy”? Is there any validity to such claim?

答主：Boris Sanochkin, Former (Ret.) Lt. Colonel

“Western democracies” is a closed club. Nobody else can become one, but it is a secret they don't tell you. According to the official version, everybody is welcome as long as he is following a certain guideline, which under scrutiny exposes itself as a set of rules designed to keep the aspiring candidate away for good.
“西方民主国家”是一个封闭的俱乐部。余下的任何人都无法成为一员，但这是他们不会告诉你的秘密。根据官方说法，他们欢迎任何遵循着一套特定指导方针的人加入，但只要仔细检查这套“指导方针”，就可以发现它本身是一套专门设计来永远拒绝有志加入的候选人的规则。

The main requirement for real successful free republic is a middle class, which has something it doesn't want to lose and demands accountability from its government.
真正成功的自由共和国主要需要有一个中产阶级，他们有不愿意失去的东西，并强烈要求政府对他们负起责任。

“Western democracies” don't like it at home anymore and particularly scared of seeing it abroad for too many reasons.
“西方民主国家”不再希望国内有这样的人，但因为许多原因更加害怕在国外出现这样的人。

So, their take of aspiring “democracy” are “reforms” or a controlled process of dismantling of national institutions in the developing countries. The idea is to erode the economic conditions inside to such a degree that there is no middle class and no republic as a result, except banana republic.
所以，他们对有志向的“民主国家”的意见总是“改革”或在发展中国家推动可控的进程来废除国家机构。这个想法的目的是从内部削弱经济环境，最终结果是既不会有中产阶级也不会有共和国存在，除了香蕉共和国。

The process is directed through a set of NGOs aka organs of “civil society”. They are largely staffed by foreigners and traitors on foreign payroll with the idea to gaslight the national authorities every time they do something right and to force them to do wrong. Media is mostly used for mind control to set the population against its representatives, but when it fails the NGOs are running pogroms to force compliance. During pogroms, they are directing underclasses against the middle class for the reasons outlined above.
这项进程由一套非政府组织来指导，也就是所谓的“公民社会”的喉舌。在里面干活的很大程度上都是外国人和外国工资单上的卖国贼，为的是来PUA当局，每当他们要做对什么事情时，就迫使他们做错。媒体主要用来进行精神控制，煽动人民去反对他们的代表，但如果这一企图失败，非政府组织们就会发动大规模迫害来强迫服从。在迫害中，他们就会基于上面叙述过的理由，指导社会底层去反对中产阶级。

One might ask why such NGOs are allowed at all? That is because they are untouchable, and the tolerance of their mischief is the main requirement for the developing country to stay on list of “aspiring democracy”. There are anecdotical examples when activists committed blatant heinous crimes on video, including murders, but any attempts to prosecute them resulted in diplomatic scandals and intervention of Western Embassies.
可能有人会问，为什么非政府组织做这种事情居然是被允许的？那是因为他们是不可触碰的，而且对于他们恶意捣乱的容忍正是发展中国家待在“有志民主化”的国家名单中的主要条件。一个有趣的例子是，当积极分子们在影片里明目张胆地犯下包括谋杀在内的凶恶罪行时，任何试图起诉他们的行为都会导致外交丑闻和西方大使馆的干预。

Stand your ground and you are declared a dictatorship on the next day, and the entirety of the Western media complex is going to be directed at making up stories of how bad your country is.
坚持你们的立场，然后你们明天就会被宣布为独裁国家，整个西方媒体群都接受了统一指导，准备开始编写你们国家有多坏的故事。

One positive thing from the standpoint of developing countries is that “Western democracies” are now falling into a trap of their own making.
在发展中国家的立场看，有一件积极的事情是，“西方民主国家”正掉入他们自己挖掘的陷阱。

The above tools proved so effective in controlling the foreign politics, that the usual suspects can't help themselves but try to adapt the same methods against their political opponents at home, and they definitely don't want middle class to hold them accountable for any of the above antics.
上述工具被证明在控制外国政治方面十分有效，因此那些嫌疑惯犯们无法控制自己去尝试将同样的方法改造后用在国内政治对手的身上，而且他们显然不希望中产阶级要他们为任何上述小丑的行为承担责任。

It sure helps them stay in power, but then their own countries are getting gradually converted into the third world hell holes they work so hard to keep down abroad, and mostly due to the same reasons. The erosion of national institutions = the erosion of law and order = the erosion of the opportunities = the erosion of middle class = the erosion of government accountability.
这当然有助于他们维持统治，但结果使他们自己的国家也逐渐转变成第三世界的污秽之地，而这些海外国家本来就是因为同样的原因——因为他们的努力打压而变得如此。对国家机构的削弱，就是对法律与秩序的削弱，对发展机会的削弱，对中产阶级的削弱，对政府责任的削弱。

What not to like from a perspective of the political class? On one hand, you have increased unchecked power, but on the other hand you can't effectively use it due to erosion of state instulitutions. Then you'd need organized crime and NGOs for enforcement, but they'd want you to share power for their services. The erosion of the middle class also means growing poverty, shrinking demand and related slowdown in the economy, you have to cover by under-reported inflation. It means less funds to exercise power, which is especially true when it comes to foreign entanglements.
从政治精英的角度看，什么是他们不喜欢的？一方面，你有逐渐增长的不受约束的力量，但另一方面因为国家机构的腐蚀，你无法有效地使用它。那么你就需要有组织的犯罪和和为实施而存在的非政府组织，但他们希望你为了他们提供的服务而分享权力。对中产阶级的削弱同时意味着贫穷的增加，需求的减少和与之关联的经济发展缓慢，你必须处理好被低估的通货膨胀。这意味着有更少的钱来行使权力，当外国势力纠缠不清时更是如此。

单词表

vaildity n. 合法性；正确性
guildeline n. 指导方针
scrutiny n. 仔细检查
aspiring adj. 有志成为……的
candidate n. 候选人
for good 永远地
demand v. 坚决要求，需要
accountability n. 责任心
take n. 看法，意见
dismantle v. 废除
institution n. 机构
erode v. 削弱
degree n. 程度
organ n. 宣传工具
staff v. 在……工作
traitor n. 叛徒
payroll n. 工资名单
gaslight vt. 心理操纵使人自我怀疑
authority n. 当局
representative n. 代表
pogrom n. 大屠杀
compliance n. 遵从
underclases n. 社会底层
outline v. 概述
tolarance n. 容忍
mischief n. 恶意伤害
anecdotical adj. 轶事的
activist n. 积极分子
commit v. 犯（罪）
blatant adj. 明目张胆的
heinous adj. 极恶毒的
prosecute v. 起诉
scandal n. 丑闻
intervention n. 甘雨
embassy n. 大使馆
stand your ground 坚持立场
complex n. 相关联的一组诉
scandal n. 丑闻
intervention n. 甘雨
embassy n. 大使馆
stand your ground 坚持立场
complex n. 相关联的一组事物
standpoiont n. 立场
suspect v. 怀疑
adapt v. 改造，适应
definitely adv. 当然地
accountable adj. 负有责任的
antic n. 小丑

译自：https://qr.ae/prmzug

时间：2023年3月11日