为什么中国实际上需要台湾？

Why does China actually need Taiwan?

答主：Peter Elliott, Lived in Dalian, Liaoning, China (2008–2012)

Ok rather than going down the track of “it’s theirs” and talking about history, imagine what would happen if Taiwan was independent. How long would it take for the US to have a military base there complete with nukes pointing the 100 odd km at China.
好的，比起顺着“那是他们的”这条路更进一步并谈论历史，不如想象一下如果台湾独立将会发生什么。美国花多少时间就能完成一个，包括指向着距离100公里左右的中国本土的核武器在内的军事基地。

So even if they could give it up spiritually, there’s no way geopolitically, in terms of security that China would allow the US to complete the first Island chain and encircle them. No way.
所以说，即使他们在精神上可以放弃，在地缘政治上也不可能，中国在安全方面允许美国完成第一岛链对自己的包围是不可能的。

So yes China needs Taiwan at least in its current state of ambiguity. Otherwise it’s an existential crisis and after the last one, where the west plundered China for 100 years (AND in living memory) they won’t be going down that track again. It was almost the death of China and one that’ll take generations more to recover from.
所以是，中国需要台湾至少保持它模棱两可的现状。否则中国将面临生存危机，而上一次正是西方对中国100年的掠夺（并且还存在人们的记忆中），他们不会想要再次让事情发展成那样。那几乎是中国的死亡，并且会需要好几代人才能从中恢复。

The first Island chain is also why China is set on retaining control of Islands in the SCS and why the US is so set on disrupting it. It pushes Chinese military assets up and into that encirclement and could possibly tear holes in any future blockade - a path for shipping. Remembering that a US blockade of China which included preventing humanitarian aid killed millions in the famine in the 1900s.
第一岛链同时也是中国决定保持控制南海岛屿和美国决心中断这一进程的原因。它推动中国的军事资产上升并且遭到包围，而中国有能力在任何未来的封锁中撕开一个洞，确保航路。记住，在1900年代，美国曾经封锁包括人道援助在内一切进入中国，致使上百万人在饥荒中死亡。

China learns from its mistakes.
中国从它的错误里学到了很多。

单词表

down the track 更进一步
odd adj. 大约
complete v. 使完成
even if 即使
spiritually adv. 在精神上地
in terms of 从……角度
state n. 状态
ambiguity n. 模棱两可
existential adj. 有关存在的
plunder v. 掠夺
in living memory 在人们的记忆中
set on 决定做
retain v. 保持
disrupt v. 中断
asset n. 资产
encirclement n. 包围
tear v. 撕裂
blockade  n. 封锁
humanitarian adj. 人道主义的

译自：https://qr.ae/prQVgU

时间：2023年4月9日