哪个国家会先崩溃，中国还是俄罗斯？

Which would collapse first, China or Russia?

答主：Jean-Marie Valheur, visited China many times and lived in HK

One might argue that Russia already collapsed somewhere in the early 1990s around the time when the USSR died, and has never fully recovered since. By contrast, in China the CCP regime is still firmly in the saddle. And you can say about these people want you want, their human rights track record is absolutely atrocious, but… boy, are they efficient!
可能有人会争辩，说俄罗斯在1990年代早期苏联解体时就已经在某个地方崩溃了，从那之后就没有完全恢复过来。作为对比，中共政权在中国还牢牢地骑在鞍上。你可以说这些地方的人民也想要和你一样的东西，他们的人权追踪记录绝对恶劣，但是……孩子，这些话有效吗！

Compared to China’s CCP, Putin’s Russia is a banana republic. Xi and his cronies have complete control over their country, the media, the narrative overall. They control their population and do so with an iron fist. I see articles sometimes that claim China is “on it’s last legs” or “surely China’s collapse is imminent” and I just… can’t see it. It’s wishful thinking at best. Or a dangerous delusion at worst.
和中国的中共相比，普京的俄罗斯就是个香蕉共和国。习和他的密友们已经完全控制了他们的国家、媒体和总体叙事。他们通过铁拳控制着他们的人口。我常常会看到一些文章，声称中国已经“只剩最后一口气”，或者“中国的崩溃即将发生”，而我只是……看不到这些。往好处想，那些都是美好的愿望。往坏处想则是危险的错觉。

China is not going anywhere. And neither is the current regime in Beijing. It isn’t “too big” or “too good” to fail but it is is too in control, in control of the numbers, the statistics, the markets, the people. Something very, very drastic has to happen for it to collapse.
中国哪也不会去。北京的现政权也是一样。它并非是因为“太大”或“太好”而不会倒下，而是因为控制力太强，它控制着数字、统计、市场和人民。想要让它崩溃，必须发生非常、非常极端的事件才行。

单词表

firmly adv. 坚固地
saddke n. 马鞍
atrocious adj. 恶劣的
crony n. 密友
narrative n. 叙述
overall adj. 总体的，全面的
fist n. 拳头
on its last legs 奄奄一息
imminent adj. 即将发生的
at best 在最有利的条件下
delusion n. 错觉，妄想
statistic n. 统计数字
drastic adj. 极端的

译自：https://qr.ae/pypr8B

时间：2021年5月22日