习近平会终身统治吗？到那时中国会发生什么？他会重建领导人终身制的传统——就像毛和邓时代那样吗？

Will Xi Jinping end up ruling for life? What will happen to China then? Will he re-establish the tradition once again that the paramount leader leads for life - such as under Mao and Deng?

答主：Bill Chen , Lives in Singapore

In the history of modern China, only mao ruled to his death.
在现代中国的历史上，只有毛的统治是终身制的。

He was father of the nation, and the key leader of the long March generation, elders who were all-powerful.
他是国家的建国之父，长征一代的核心领袖，拥有至高无上权力的长老。

Mao was worried about China fracturing from within, with the painful memory of lin biao an enduring wound.
毛担心中国从内部分裂，还有关于林彪的痛苦记忆这一持久的伤口。

Deng who took over in his late 70s NEVER ASSUMED FORMAL POWER. That is why the foreign press invented a new title for him—paramount leader.
邓在70多岁时接管国家，但他从未取得正式权力。这也是为什么外国媒体为他发明了一个新头衔——最高领导人。

Deng characterized his job as “1–2 hours of thinking daily”, to make critical decisions on policy direction. He never assumed executive control of the government, serving instead as china's top diplomat and face to the world. He preferred to keep a watchful eye out for the first non-long March generation taking over the reins, stepping in when necessary to restore order.
邓形容他的工作是“每天思考1-2小时”，在政治方向上做至关重要的决定。他从未取得政府的行政权力，而是作为中国最顶级的外交官和面对世界的门面。他倾向于保持警惕，密切关注第一代没经历过长征的领导人的接班，必要时插手干预来恢复秩序。

Even then, he resigned all posts and retired in 1989 post-tiananmen.
即便如此，他还是辞去了所有职务，并在1989年天安门事件前退休。

He was 85, and enjoyed 7 years of well-earned retirement before passing just short of Hong Kong handover.
他那时已经85岁，在他去世前享受了7年应得的退休生活，在香港即将移交之际去世。

Jiang and hu both retired from the top chair. Jiang spent 20 years in peaceful retirement, while hu is still going strong a decade hence.
江和胡都从头把交椅上退休了。江在平静的退休生活中度过了20年，而胡在10年之后既然保持强力。

Chinese leadership change has been repeatedly codified in the constitution, with modern China on its 4th constitution, which has undergone 5 major amendments. The constitution continues to be refined every 5 years during the NPC.
中国的领导层变更曾经被反复写入宪法，中国的现行宪法已经是第四部，其间经历了5次重大修订。每隔5年，全国人民代表大会都会继续对它做改进。

The president serves at the pleasure of the NPC, although the role of general secretary is the purview of the cpc central committee.
虽然总书记的职务在中共中央委员会的权限范围内，中国国家主席服务的是全国人民代表大会。

In all likelihood, Xi will not die in office. That is too disruptive and risky for Chinese taste.
从所有可能性来讲，习都不会死在办公室里。就中国人的口味而言，这太容易引起混乱和风险。

Xi's primary value is his stature allowing his administration to push through unpopular policy that will benefit the nation but offend the elite.
习的主要价值在于，他的声望允许他的行政部门推动一些对国家有利但损害精英利益的不受欢迎的政策。

单词表

all-powerful adj. 无所不能的，有无上权力的
fracture v. （使）分裂
within adv. 在内部
enduring adj. 持久的
take over 接管
assume 取得……权力
press n. 新闻界
paramount adj. 至高无上的
characterize v. 描述
critical adj. 至关重要的
watchful adj. 警惕的
keep an eye out 密切注意
rein n. 缰绳
step in 插手干预
resign v. 辞职
post n. 要职
well-earned adj. 应得的
handover n. 移交
hence adv. ……之后
codify vt. 将……变成发电
constitution n.  宪法
amendment n. 修正
refine v. 改进
NPC =National People's Congress
serve at the pleasure of 为……服务
role n. 职责
purview n. 权限
disruptive adj. 引起混乱的
stature n. 声望
administration n. 行政部门
unpopular adj. 不受欢迎的

译自：https://qr.ae/prJUHS

时间：2023年2月21日