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主题: 到21世纪末，哪种经济体系会笑到最后？资本主义是否更可能取得重大胜利，还是说社会主义或共产主义？

Which economic system will eventually prevail until the end of the 21st century? Is it more likely that capitalism will triumph, socialism or communism?

答主：Mats Andersson, Translator (1991–present)

If everything goes well, all current economic systems will be obsolete and gone the way of the feudal system; this question will be as relevant as asking about the future relation between kings and lords.
如果一切顺利，所有现存经济体系都将被淘汰，走上封建体系的走过的路；这个问题的有意义程度，就跟你问未来国王和领主之间的关系会如何一样。

We should, by 2099, be in what is known as a post-scarcity economy. That's what happens when the economy isn't based on certain items being scarce. It's anybody's guess exactly what it'll look like, and the road from here to there is likely to be bumpy in places.
到2099年，我们肯定已经处在“后稀缺时代”的经济体系中。那是当经济不再基于特定稀缺物品以后的时代。关于它到底是什么样，大家都只能猜测，而且通往它的道路很可能崎岖不平。

The best economic minds on the planet are trying to figure out how it's going to work; it's never been tried before. But it's a fair guess that it will in some ways look a little bit socialist, and that few elements of classical capitalism will survive.
这个星球上最好的经济学思想都在尝试找出它将如何运作的方式；它此前从未被尝试过。但合理猜测它将会在某些地方看起来有点像社会主义，而经典资本主义的元素将几乎不复存在。

单词表

prevail  v. 流行，获胜
triumph n. 重大胜利
obsolete v. 淘汰
relevant adj. 有意义的
scarcity n. 缺乏
bumpy adj. 颠簸的
in places 到处
minds n. 思想

译自：https://qr.ae/pyIlfx

时间：2021年10月17日

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回复: 到21世纪末，哪种经济体系会笑到最后？资本主义是否更可能取得重大胜利，还是说社会主义或共产主义？

Matthew L

We are currently in a false scarcity economy.
我们目前正住在人为制造的稀缺性经济中。

The world has the present capacity to provide for the basic needs of all people.
这个世界现在就有能力满足所有人的基本需求。

All that prevents this are the systems we have inherited from prior scarcity economies and their current defenders. These are the oligarchs, kleptocrats, extractive industries, and other regressive types.
阻碍我们的不过是我们从过去继承来的稀缺性经济体制和它在当下的捍卫者。他们是寡头政客、盗贼官僚、炼油产业和其他反动派。

The big question is whether we can make the transition to post scarcity before we burn the place down.
最大的问题是，我们能否在毁灭地球之前实现到后稀缺型经济的转型。

Aaron Blain

Check out 19thc US utopian author Edward Bellamy. Even in the 1800s technology was becoming so productive that many people took for granted that work would soon become largely unnecessary. Then during the Cold War Buckminster Fuller said that capitalism and communism would become irrelevant because society could produce more than enough to satisfy everyone’s needs (which is, ironically, precisely how Engels describes communism, in The Principles of Communism).
可以看看19世纪的美国乌托邦主义作家爱德华·贝拉米。早在1800年代，科技就已经变得如此高产，让许多人认为马上就可以很大程度地不需要工作是一件理所当然的事。然而在冷战中，巴克敏斯特·富勒说资本主义和共产主义将会是无关紧要的，因为社会生产力已经足以乃至超额满足所有人的需求（讽刺的是，这恰好是恩格斯在《共产主义原理》中对共产主义的描述）。

We could have been post-scarcity for a while now, but scarcity is a basis for power.
我们本该已经实现后稀缺性经济一段时间了，然而稀缺性正是权力的基础。

Robert Stevens

‘capacity’ and ‘basic’ are significant words in this. Capacity doesn’t mean that we can currently provide for the basic needs where they are needed, and you also need to define ‘basic’. What aspects of life would this require people to give up? Would that leave an infrastructure adequate to maintain the basic needs?
“能力”和“基本”在这里是非常重要的词。有能力并不意味着我们现在就能在满足所有基本需求并将它们送到需要的地方去，而且你同样需要定义什么是”基本“。它需要人们放弃生活的哪个方面？在那之后还能剩下一个足够满足基本需求的基础设施额吗？

单词表

false adj. 人造的，伪造的
scarcity n. 缺乏
capacity n. 能力
prior adj. 先前的
oligarch n. 寡头政治家
kleptocrat n. 盗贼官僚
extractive adj. 精炼的
industry n. 产业，工业
regressive adj. 倒退的
burn down 烧毁
check out 核实，检查
granted adv. 的确
take for granted 认为……理所当然
irrelevant adj. 无关紧要的
ironically adv. 讽刺地
precisely adv. 恰好
define v. 给……下定义
aspect n. 方面
adequate adj. 足够的

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回复: 到21世纪末，哪种经济体系会笑到最后？资本主义是否更可能取得重大胜利，还是说社会主义或共产主义？

Christian Wray

Matthew is saying that we can produce enough to sustain everyone - mostly in reference to food, but also clothing, shelter, etc.
马修说的是我们有能力生产足够维持每一个人的产品——主要是食物，也包含衣服、住处等等。

Historically, this has not always been the case. Organisms have been competing for resources to sustain their energy since the inception of life and humans were no different. Our society is shaped around this fundamental biology focused on the accumulation of resources.
从历史上看，事情并非总是如此。生物从生命出现之初就开始争夺资源，以维持自身的能量，人类也没有什么不同。我们的社会是围绕着关注资源积累这一根本生物习性而塑造的。

It is only through relatively recent technological + societal advances (mostly technological) that the current global food production far surpasses the current global food need. This is largely why the global poverty rate is down from ~90% in 1850 to ~9% today.
直到最近发生的技术和社会进步（主要是技术），才使得全球粮食生产远超过现在的全球粮食需求。很大程度上，这就是全球贫困率从1850年代的90%降低到今天的9%的原因。

You make a good point about having the capacity to “provide for basic needs where they are needed,” and obviously that isn’t happening as people are still going hungry. But that lack of infrastructure is due to how our society has come to be structured - if it was the sole focus of every government, every business, everybody everywhere, no one would go hungry. I wouldn’t wait around for this to happen though.
你提出了一个很好的观点，就是说我们已经有能力“满足世界任何一个角落的基本需求”，而很明显的是它并没有发生，仍然有人在挨饿。但这种基础设施的缺乏要归咎于我们社会的组成结构——如果那是每个政府、每桩生意、每个地方的每个人的唯一关注点，那就没有人会挨饿了。然而我不会空等这样的事情发生。

You also mention trade-offs of wealth. I am sure you have seen commercials about how you can feed a starving child for $1/day - it’s really not much. I know that’s not a superbly accurate figure to cite, but something tells me that in this idealized scenario most people would be able to keep their televisions and BMWs.
你还提到了平均财富。我肯定你看过用1美元资助一个饥饿儿童的电视广告——这确实不多。我知道那不是一个可以引证的非常精确的数字，但却告诉我了，在这一理想的剧本里，多数人都可以拥有他们的电视和宝马汽车。

Again, this is providing basic food and shelter, not providing everyone with a BMW…but in theory, if that was our sole focus, that could probably happen too. The productive capabilities of the modern world are astounding.
再次强调，这里能提供的只是基本的粮食和住房，而不时给每个人一辆宝马汽车……但从理论上说，如果那是我们唯一的关注点的话，或许也能成功。现代世界的制造能力是令人震惊。

单词表

sustain v. 维持
shelter n. 住处
organism n. 生物，有机物
inception n. 创始，开端
biology n. 生理习性
accumulation n. 积累
relatively adv. 相当地
surpass v. 超过
societal adj. 社会的
make a good point 提出一个很好的观点
sole adj. 唯一的
wait arround 空等
trade-off 平衡，妥协
comercial n. 电视广告
superbly  adv. 雄伟地，极好地
cite v. 引证
astounding adj. 令人震惊的

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